After 82 regular season games, three playoff series wins, two Splash Brother head injuries and one Western Conference Championship trophy presentation, it finally all comes down to this: the Warriors versus the Cavaliers for the NBA Championship. Almost a month and a half has passed since the Warriors began their playoff journey, and by the end of the third week of June, we'll know just how successful a journey it was. Never in the history of the game has a team taken a path to the Finals quite like the Warriors have this postseason, not only defeating three strong teams, but teams that were led by the very best players in the game. With Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol and James Harden, the Warriors have faced a member of the All-NBA First Team in each of the first three rounds, and now Stephen Curry and LeBron James will fight it out to be the last man standing from that esteemed group.
James, widely regarded as the best player on the planet for the last several years, has that reputation for good reason; his skill set combined with his other-worldly physical traits make him unlike any player we've seen in a very long time, and perhaps ever. Think of it this way: he's basically the same size as Hall-of-Famer Karl Malone, but the Mailman never moved or shot the ball from the perimeter like the King does. He is a tremendous, dynamic force that affects the game as much as anyone, and while the Warriors are rightfully concerned with mitigating his influence, the fact that they've already faced and defeated the three aforementioned stars above should give them plenty of confidence that they're capably up to the task. That said, it's not as if James plays alongside a bunch of no-name scrubs, so the Dubs will certainly have their hands full. Since James returned to game action on January 13 after recovering from multiple injuries, the two best records in the NBA belonged to - you guessed it - the Cavs (34-10) and the Warriors (38-10). These teams didn't arrive at this final round by accident. Their presence here is the culmination of a trajectory that was initiated several months ago, and it's going to be extremely entertaining to watch them battle it out for the game's ultimate prize.
With the Warriors requiring 15 games to reach the Finals and the Cavaliers only needing 14, the 29 combined games are the fewest from a Finals pairing to reach the ultimate series since the playoffs expanded to 7-game series back in 2003. And, while the teams have combined to make history in reaching the Finals together, they've managed to do it separately as well. Since the NBA starting counting turnovers in 1977, no team had made the Finals after leading the league in pace — like the Warriors did — or after ranking as low as 20th in defensive efficiency — like the Cavs did — in the regular season. So, while both teams have coasted through their respective conferences on the shoulders of their respective leaders, they've arrived in these Finals by way of differentiated styles.
The Warriors are the best shooting team of the playoffs, with an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent. 35.8 percent of their shots have come from behind the 3-point arc, the highest rate in the postseason, although the Cavs aren't far behind at 35.6 percent. The difference lies more in how the two teams get their shots, as opposed to where they get them from. The Warriors have set an average of 42.1 ball screens per game in the playoffs, the fewest of any team, while their 25.1 assists and 8.1 secondary assists per game rank the highest of all playoff teams. The Cavs, meanwhile, rank second and third worst, respectively, in those categories, and it has everything to do with how their offense operates. Whereas the Warriors' attack is predicated off of continuous ball movement, Cleveland goes about it on a much more one-on-one basis. The Cavs lead all playoff teams in offensive isolations run, averaging an isolation on 16.5 percent of their offensive possessions; to compare, the Warriors run isolation plays just 7.2 percent of the time. James, by far, leads all players in the playoffs with 140 isolation possessions; Stephen Curry ranks third with 51. The Warriors love to get their offense early on in the possession; they rank second in the playoffs with 17.6 percent of their shots coming in the first six seconds of a possession, and have an effective field goal percentage of 61.9 percent on those early shots. Conversely, the Cavaliers are much more deliberate with their approach, preferring to use almost the entire shot clock before taking a shot. They've attempted 23.9 percent of their (initial possession) shots in the last six seconds of the shot clock, the highest rate of the postseason. James, with 81 attempts by himself, has attempted 27 more shots in the last six seconds of the shot clock than any other player. Two different philosophies, but in general, one similar result: supreme potency. The Cavs (108.6) and Warriors (107.3) rank first and second among all playoff teams in offensive rating, which measures the amount of points scored per 100 possessions.
So, the numbers would seem to indicate that we're in for an offensive series – but, not so fast. Both teams rely on their defense to ignite their potent offenses, and the statistics back that up. The Warriors, after being the best defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, have put up the fourth-best defensive rating (98.9 points allowed per 100 defensive possessions) in the playoffs, although they've performed no worse than second over the last two rounds. Cleveland, after a myriad of injuries and midseason acquisitions, has seen its defense improve as the season went on, and currently possesses the third-best defensive rating (98.5) of all playoff teams. Both sides use what seems like an endless supply of long, physical bodies to alter shots and force turnovers, which in turn, feeds their offenses. The Warriors lead all playoff teams with an average of 21.6 fast break points per game, while the Cavs average 1.27 points per possession in transition, also the best mark of the playoffs.
Suffice to say, these teams match up very closely on the stat sheet. Now, in the next three weeks, we'll get to see how they match up on the court over the course of a 7-game series. The two sides split the regular season series one game apiece, with each team winning on their own home court. Neither James nor Iman Shumpert played for Cleveland in the first meeting, which the Warriors won, while the Cavs current starting lineup played just 1.3 minutes together in the Cavs' victory in their second encounter. So, while there is some head-to-head data from which to draw upon, it doesn't exactly foreshadow the series we're about to witness. More than three months have passed since the last time these two teams faced each other, and plenty has changed since then for both sides. There's a bit of mystery surrounding how these teams will match up when Game 1 tips off in a week. Here are three storylines worth keeping an eye on:
1. The King vs. The MVP
While it's not likely that the two will be matched up against each other for prolonged stretches, this series offers a chance to see perhaps the two best players in the game lead their teams toward the NBA's ultimate prize. LeBron James and Stephen Curry rank first and second, respectively, in the postseason in individual usage rate, which calculates the percentage of teams' offensive possessions that a player uses while on the court. In fact, James' postseason usage rate of 36.4 percent is the highest of his career. He becomes the focal point of the offense more and more as the game goes on, with a usage rate of 34.1 percent in the first three quarters of games and 43.4 percent in the fourth. Despite playing different positions and having incomparable physiques, the advanced stats for Curry and James in the playoffs are quite similar. Both players possess nearly identical free throw attempt rates (0.281 to 0.287), as well as assist (19.0 to 20.4) and turnover (both 10.7) ratios. Curry has been the more efficient scorer with an effective field goal percentage of 57.6 percent compared to 44.5 percent for James, while the King has provided more for his team on defense and on the glass, although that is to be expected.
Curry has continued the three-point barrage of his record-setting regular season campaign into the playoffs, and has made 28 more 3-pointers than any other player this postseason. He leads the playoffs in both pull-up (79) and catch-and-shoot (86) three-point attempts, while shooting an almost-perfect 12-of-13 from the left corner. Basically, if you leave him open over there, it's going in. Count on it. LeBron, conversely, is having a tougher time with his shot this postseason, particularly in pull-up situations. James has an effective field goal percentage of just 23.0 percent on pull-up jump shots, the worst mark among players who have attempted at least 50. He has shot 5-for-45 on pull-up threes and 21-for-97 on pull-up, two-point jumpers. In general, he's shooting just 17.6 percent (12-of-68) from three-point land, by far the worst percentage of his playoff career. Given those numbers, it might be wise for the Warriors to sag off of James when he is out on the perimeter, simultaneously daring him to take a shot he's clearly been inefficient with while also cutting off some of his assist opportunities by giving help to the Dubs' interior defenders. Not to mention, James leads the playoffs with 14.7 drives per game, and that strategy would afford whoever is matched up with James additional time to get in position to defend them. Still, it's a delicate balance. Leave James too much room to shoot, and he very well may begin a barrage of his own. There is no good way to defend either of these great players, and it's quite possible the victor of this not-so-head-to-head matchup could be hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy when all is said and done.
2. Sidekick Status'
While LeBron and Curry won't necessarily be matched up against each other very often, it's much more likely that their sidekicks in Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson will. Both players were 2011 lottery picks, both were selected as All-Stars this year, and both enter the series with question marks surrounding their health. Irving has battled left knee and foot pain all postseason long, and was forced to sit out two games of Cleveland's four-game sweep of the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Thompson, who's been an iron man throughout his career and missed only six games in the last three seasons combined, had his status put into question after suffering a concussion in the Warriors' series-clinching Game 5 victory over the Rockets. While injuries to players of such talent are always a concern, the good news is that both Irving and Thompson will have plenty of time to recuperate before the Finals start. Recovery times for concussions are extremely difficult to predict, and while there's no guarantee Thompson will be ready by the time Game 1 tips off on June 4th, this is exactly why the Warriors did themselves a favor by briskly finishing off the Rockets in five games. The Warriors need Thompson out on the court, and a full week of rest greatly increases the chances he'll be available.
3. Shot Location
We all know by now that the Warriors are a prolific three-point shooting team. What isn't as abundantly known is that they're equally good at forcing their opponents into disadvantageous shot locations. With their bevy of long defenders, the Warriors contest perimeter shots and funnel the opposition toward Andrew Bogut in the paint, where Bogut protects the rim and the rest of the defense sinks down to contest inefficient interior shots. It's a strategy that helped earn them the best defensive rating in the league during the regular season, and one that altered the Cavs' plan of attack in their regular season matchups. Against all opponents, the Cavs took 32 percent of their shots from the restricted area. That number dropped to just 19 percent (14/73) with Bogut on the floor and 26 percent against Golden State overall. Only Sacramento (20 percent) allowed Cleveland to shoot a lower percentage of its shots from the restricted area than the Warriors did. The Cavs trail only the Warriors in 3-pointers made and attempted among all playoff teams, so they're clearly comfortable launching shots from beyond the arc. Both sides will attempt to force opposing shooters off the three-point line, which will place added pressure on their interior defenses. If the Warriors are able to protect the paint against the Cavs like they did in the regular season while not conceding uncontested 3-pointers, that could significantly hamper Cleveland's ability to produce the kind of offensive efficiency that's helped bring them to this point.
As stated earlier, plenty has changed for both the Cavaliers and Warriors since the last time they faced each other, so there isn't an abundance of relevant data from which to draw upon. Still, here are a few notes to keep in mind from their regular season encounters:
- The Warriors recorded 67 assists in the two games. The Cavs recorded 28.
- Kyrie Irving shot 3-for-16 in the paint and 12-for-24 from outside the paint.
- Draymond Green shot 9-for-9 in the restricted area and 0-for-10 from 3-point range. He was one of seven players who attempted at least 10 threes against a regular-season opponent without making one.
- The Cavs scored less than 80 points per 100 possessions in 25 minutes with Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston on the floor together for Golden State.
Take a further look at each of the 2014-15 regular season matchups between the Warriors and Cavaliers below:
January 9, 2015 | GSW 112-94 | Oracle Arena, Oakland
The Warriors finished off their homestand in strong fashion, defeating the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers 112-94. The Dubs were paced by Klay Thompson who scored a team-high 24 points. Stephen Curry notched a double-double with 23 points and 10 assists, while Draymond Green fell just short of a triple-double with 10 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. The Warriors won the game on the break, outscoring the Cavaliers 36-3 in fast break opportunities for the game, including 21-0 in the first half.
February 26, 2015 | CLE 110-99 | Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
The Warriors were unable to recover from a slow start to the second half in a 110-99 loss in Cleveland. A close game at the half, the Cavs went on a 12-0 run early in the third quarter and the Dubs suffered their second defeat in the first three games of a season-long six-game road trip. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 18 points in the first half, including 12 in the first quarter, but he shot just 1-for-10 from the field in the second half. David Lee led the Dubs with 19 points and Draymond Green played a quality all-around game with 16 points, eight rebounds, four assists and five steals.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: WARRIORS VS. CAVALIERS
Statistical leaders from the team's two regular season matchups
| GSW | CLE |
| Points | |
| Curry - 20.5 Thompson - 18.5 Lee - 13.5 |
James - 42.0 Irving - 23.5 Love - 16.5 |
Rebounds |
|
| Green - 9.5 Thompson - 5.5 Bogut - 5.0 |
James - 11.0 Love - 11.0 Mozgov - 9.0 |
Assists |
|
| Curry - 8.0 Green - 6.0 Iguodala - 5.5 |
James - 5.0 Smith - 3.0 Irving - 3.0 |
It's been 40 years since the last time the Warriors were in the NBA Finals. Back then, Gerald Ford was President, the price of gas in California was 57 cents per gallon, and "Shining Star" by Earth, Wind and Fire topped the music charts. Safe to say, it's been awhile. Cleveland, on the other hand, is looking for its first championship in franchise history, so they too have a gigantic gorilla to get off their back in the series ahead. After a record-setting regular season in which the Warriors won 67 games, had the West's starting backcourt in the All-Star Game, and saw Steph Curry bring home the franchise's first MVP award in 55 years, the only question that remained was whether or not they'd be able to live up to the lofty expectations they'd set up for themselves in the postseason. Well, after dispatching the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets in only 19 games, they're three-quarters of the way to answering that question with a resounding yes. Only LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers remain in their way, and they'll likely be the Warriors' toughest test yet in their postseason journey. With the star power and historical implications, it all sets up for what could possibly one of the best Finals series in recent memory.
Game 1 tips off on Thursday at 6:00 p.m. at Oracle Arena. Throughout the series, make sure to tune into Warriors Playoff Central for the most updated information and behind-the-scenes coverage of the team's playoff journey.