CLEVELAND — The Golden State Warriors' season could be on the line Thursday in Game 4 of The Finals (9 p.m. ET, ABC). The Warriors were the best team in the league by a wide margin in the regular season, but have not looked like themselves for much of the first three games.
The series has been played at the Cleveland Cavaliers' pace. LeBron James has dominated the series, accounting for about 2/3 of the Cavs' points via his own points and assists. He hasn't been all that efficient, but it's been enough with the Cavs slowing the Warriors down and stifling their ball movement.
At first glance, it seems clear that the Warriors need to get things going offensively to tie the series before it heads back to Oakland for Game 5 on Sunday. But NBA TV analyst Brent Barry (aka "Bones") believes that their adjustments should start on the other end of the floor.
Schuhmann: The Warriors have scored less than a point per possession through the first three games, so most people's first thought is that they need to play better or change things up offensively. But you want to see a change on defense.
Barry: In order for their offense to find its rhythm again, they can create more opportunities by what they do defensively, which will help with their pace. How many times in Game 3 did the Cavs shoot the ball late in the shot clock?
Schuhmann: Thirty-one of their 76 shots (about 41 percent) came in the last seven seconds of the clock. For the series, they've taken 39 percent of their shots in the last seven seconds, which is more than twice the league average (18 percent) from the regular season.
Links: Game 3 shots with 0-4 on the clock | with 4-7 on the clock
Barry: That's an insane number.
A lot of times, LeBron is getting the ball on the wing and they're giving him space to the point where the defender — Harrison Barnes or Andre Iguodala — finally tries to slow him down or stand him up at this point, what Pop (Gregg Popovich) would refer to as the "Karl Malone spot," which is on the line from the elbow to the corner. It's one dribble away, for guys that are quick enough, to get to the basket or draw a foul.
The Warriors' defensive principle is Andrew Bogut or Festus Ezeli are hanging below, and when LeBron gets to this point, his defender is supposed to get to the top side, turn him baseline and we have "baseline go."
Timofey Mozgov has done a good job of top-cutting this and getting to the basket or getting free throws…
And Tristan Thompson has done a good job — they've been X'ing the bigs, so as Mozgov cuts, Tristan goes up top and he's been getting in excellent rebounding position …
So what I think the Warriors could do is, take up the space you've been giving up to get on his body right away. And on the first dribble, you can come with a second defender from the bottom or the top. It depends on where he is.
Forcing him baseline from out there is tough. Last game, he drove baseline, Bogut didn't come over and he jammed it. You don't want to give him a head of steam.
If he catches deep, you immediately come with the double and you're in full rotation.
That's the idea.
Schuhmann: Of course, LeBron can make that pass to the weak-side corner quicker and stronger than anyone else in the league.
Barry: Right, and they've shot 49 percent off his passes. I already know that they've been effective with LeBron passing out of whenever they've double-teamed. But the double-teams thus far have been ineffective in the way that they've been double-teaming him.
It's not been an effective double-team. It's not been "we're going to going to get the ball out of his hands on every possession to make somebody else beat us."
I don't know if Steve Kerr decides do this right away. I know that, per the guys at Vantage Sports, the Warriors' pressure rate during the regular season was something line 4.2. They do some calculation that takes deflections, denials, all these sorts of things into account. And in the Finals, it's like a 1.4. That's a huge drop-off.
I talked to [Warriors radio play-by-play guy] Tim Roye about this last night. I said, "Tim, do you feel like the Warriors haven't been aggressive on the defensive end?"
He said, "Oh, absolutely. This has not been anywhere near the type of chaos that our defense has created all year long with switches, being up in guys, and all types of activity."
Some of it could be affected by Draymond Green's confidence, where the offense has affected his defense. It could be that his back is hurt.
The other worry on double-teaming is that you're going to give up more offensive rebounds to Thompson and Mozgov if you double-team. But if these guys are shooting the shots that this double-team produces, they're going to be long shots and they're going to be longer rebounds. And I think the Warriors will have opportunities to get to those.
This is the way that I think the Warriors can speed up the pace of the game, to feel like they're forcing the Cavs to do things that they haven't done for three games. And it could help them get their own rhythm back.
Schuhmann: Forcing them to be more active defensively could also get them more engaged overall.
Barry: I think so. The other thing, in that scenario, Barnes might not play as much. David Lee, playing in that scheme, is less of a liability, because there's not one-on-one responsibilities in this. What you're doing is hiding guys by double-teams and scrambling.
Shaun Livingston is a guy who can disrupt things with his length. Maybe you'll see him play more. Lee's activity offensively will help, because Bogut's been slow getting up the floor.
These are things that I think Steve can go to. Or maybe he'll stick with what they're doing, thinking that "LeBron has had historical games, but can he do it a fourth straight time against us? We've only lost by seven points in two games." We'll see tonight.
The Warriors' defense hasn't quite been all there. They haven't quite been all in. And Steve has to decide if they can win the way they've been doing it.
Schuhmann: That's always a coach's first question after a playoff loss. Do we need to make a change or do we just need to play better?
Barry: And they've had a historically bad offensive games on top of what they haven't been able to do defensively against LeBron. So it will be interesting to see what they do.